{"id":"24-whats-next","number":24,"slug":"what-comes-next","title":"What comes next","short":"What comes next","module":"The engineer you become","summary":"Agents went from finishing your lines to working for hours in about two years, and the curve hasn't flattened. Here's where the people building these tools think it's heading, why the bottleneck is moving from “can we build it” to “should it exist”, and a simple playbook for staying current.","voice":"Eric","scenes":[{"template":"title","chapter":"Intro","narration":"Nobody knows exactly where this goes. But the people building these tools agree on a few things, and those are worth knowing. Welcome to the last lesson.","params":{"kicker":"Lesson 24","module":"Module 6 · The engineer you become","title":"What comes *next*","subtitle":"Where this is heading, and how to keep up.","bubble":"See you next model.","mood":"happy","human":true},"start":0.5,"dur":10.682,"words":[{"text":"Nobody","s":0.8,"e":1.2},{"text":"knows","s":1.28,"e":1.52},{"text":"exactly","s":1.68,"e":2.16},{"text":"where","s":2.24,"e":2.32},{"text":"this","s":2.44,"e":2.56},{"text":"goes.","s":2.64,"e":3.28},{"text":"But","s":3.52,"e":3.6},{"text":"the","s":3.68,"e":3.76},{"text":"people","s":3.88,"e":4},{"text":"building","s":4.16,"e":4.48},{"text":"these","s":4.56,"e":4.64},{"text":"tools","s":4.72,"e":5.04},{"text":"agree","s":5.2,"e":5.36},{"text":"on","s":5.4,"e":5.44},{"text":"a","s":5.52,"e":5.6},{"text":"few","s":5.68,"e":5.84},{"text":"things,","s":5.92,"e":6.56},{"text":"and","s":6.64,"e":6.72},{"text":"those","s":6.88,"e":7.04},{"text":"are","s":7.12,"e":7.28},{"text":"worth","s":7.4,"e":7.52},{"text":"knowing.","s":7.6,"e":8},{"text":"Welcome","s":8.56,"e":8.96},{"text":"to","s":9.04,"e":9.12},{"text":"the","s":9.16,"e":9.2},{"text":"last","s":9.36,"e":9.6},{"text":"lesson.","s":9.68,"e":10.32}]},{"template":"statement","chapter":"A decade, not a year","narration":"First, temper the hype. When people called 2025 the year of agents, Karpathy pushed back. This is the decade of agents, he said. Software, like driving, is tricky, and humans need to stay in the loop while the technology matures.","params":{"text":"Not the year of agents. The *decade* of agents.","sub":"Andrej Karpathy: software is tricky, like driving. 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METR found that the length of tasks agents can complete has doubled roughly every seven months for six years. If that continues for a few more years, they project agents handling week-long tasks. Boris Cherny says Anthropic's recent models already ran for around thirty hours on their own.","params":{"events":[{"when":"2019–2023","label":"Seconds → minutes","sub":"autocomplete and chat","at":"length of tasks"},{"when":"2025","label":"Hours","sub":"agents in your repo","at":"doubled"},{"when":"2026","label":"~30 hours","sub":"a single autonomous run","at":"thirty hours"},{"when":"if the trend holds","label":"Weeks","sub":"METR's projection","now":true,"at":"week-long"}]},"start":28.563,"dur":21.378,"words":[{"text":"But","s":28.863,"e":28.996},{"text":"the","s":29.023,"e":29.156},{"text":"curve","s":29.183,"e":29.519},{"text":"is","s":29.583,"e":29.763},{"text":"steep.","s":29.823,"e":30.303},{"text":"METR","s":30.863,"e":31.583},{"text":"found","s":31.663,"e":31.903},{"text":"that","s":31.983,"e":32.063},{"text":"the","s":32.143,"e":32.223},{"text":"length","s":32.343,"e":32.463},{"text":"of","s":32.543,"e":32.623},{"text":"tasks","s":32.703,"e":33.183},{"text":"agents","s":33.383,"e":33.583},{"text":"can","s":33.663,"e":33.743},{"text":"complete","s":34.023,"e":34.303},{"text":"has","s":34.463,"e":34.623},{"text":"doubled","s":34.703,"e":35.023},{"text":"roughly","s":35.103,"e":35.503},{"text":"every","s":35.583,"e":35.903},{"text":"seven","s":35.983,"e":36.223},{"text":"months","s":36.303,"e":36.623},{"text":"for","s":36.743,"e":36.863},{"text":"six","s":36.943,"e":37.183},{"text":"years.","s":37.263,"e":38.223},{"text":"If","s":38.303,"e":38.383},{"text":"that","s":38.463,"e":38.543},{"text":"continues","s":38.703,"e":39.023},{"text":"for","s":39.103,"e":39.183},{"text":"a","s":39.263,"e":39.343},{"text":"few","s":39.423,"e":39.503},{"text":"more","s":39.583,"e":39.743},{"text":"years,","s":39.903,"e":40.463},{"text":"they","s":40.543,"e":40.623},{"text":"project","s":40.823,"e":41.023},{"text":"agents","s":41.223,"e":41.423},{"text":"handling","s":41.663,"e":41.903},{"text":"week-long","s":41.983,"e":42.543},{"text":"tasks.","s":42.783,"e":43.343},{"text":"Boris","s":43.663,"e":43.983},{"text":"Cherny","s":44.063,"e":44.463},{"text":"says","s":44.543,"e":44.783},{"text":"Anthropic's","s":44.863,"e":45.503},{"text":"recent","s":45.663,"e":45.823},{"text":"models","s":45.903,"e":46.303},{"text":"already","s":46.383,"e":46.783},{"text":"ran","s":46.863,"e":47.103},{"text":"for","s":47.183,"e":47.263},{"text":"around","s":47.463,"e":47.663},{"text":"thirty","s":47.743,"e":48.063},{"text":"hours","s":48.143,"e":48.543},{"text":"on","s":48.583,"e":48.623},{"text":"their","s":48.703,"e":48.783},{"text":"own.","s":48.863,"e":49.343}]},{"template":"list","chapter":"Where it's heading","narration":"Where is it heading? Agents are moving into the cloud, where they're easier to sandbox, and into the tools teams already use, like chat and issue trackers. They're starting to propose work, not just do it: Boris describes Claude reading feedback, bug reports and telemetry, and suggesting what to fix. And Daisy Hollman expects the next bottleneck to be getting information from the model to you, because your attention is the scarce part.","params":{"title":"Where it's heading","items":[{"text":"Into the cloud","sub":"easier to sandbox, runs while you sleep","at":"cloud"},{"text":"Into team tools","sub":"chat, issue trackers, multiplayer agents","at":"tools teams"},{"text":"From doing work to proposing it","sub":"reading feedback, bugs, telemetry","at":"propose"},{"text":"Your attention is the bottleneck","sub":"the model has to brief you well","at":"attention"}]},"start":49.941,"dur":27.621,"words":[{"text":"Where","s":50.241,"e":50.481},{"text":"is","s":50.561,"e":50.641},{"text":"it","s":50.681,"e":50.721},{"text":"heading?","s":50.801,"e":51.201},{"text":"Agents","s":51.841,"e":52.241},{"text":"are","s":52.321,"e":52.401},{"text":"moving","s":52.521,"e":52.641},{"text":"into","s":52.761,"e":52.881},{"text":"the","s":52.921,"e":52.961},{"text":"cloud,","s":53.041,"e":53.761},{"text":"where","s":53.841,"e":53.921},{"text":"they're","s":53.961,"e":54.161},{"text":"easier","s":54.201,"e":54.481},{"text":"to","s":54.561,"e":54.641},{"text":"sandbox,","s":54.961,"e":55.441},{"text":"and","s":55.561,"e":55.681},{"text":"into","s":55.761,"e":56.001},{"text":"the","s":56.081,"e":56.161},{"text":"tools","s":56.321,"e":56.481},{"text":"teams","s":56.681,"e":56.881},{"text":"already","s":57.081,"e":57.281},{"text":"use,","s":57.441,"e":57.921},{"text":"like","s":58.041,"e":58.161},{"text":"chat","s":58.361,"e":58.561},{"text":"and","s":58.641,"e":58.721},{"text":"issue","s":58.841,"e":58.961},{"text":"trackers.","s":59.041,"e":60.081},{"text":"They're","s":60.121,"e":60.321},{"text":"starting","s":60.481,"e":60.641},{"text":"to","s":60.721,"e":60.801},{"text":"propose","s":60.961,"e":61.361},{"text":"work,","s":61.441,"e":61.921},{"text":"not","s":62.001,"e":62.081},{"text":"just","s":62.161,"e":62.321},{"text":"do","s":62.401,"e":62.481},{"text":"it:","s":62.561,"e":63.201},{"text":"Boris","s":63.281,"e":63.601},{"text":"describes","s":63.681,"e":64.161},{"text":"Claude","s":64.241,"e":64.561},{"text":"reading","s":64.641,"e":64.961},{"text":"feedback,","s":65.241,"e":65.761},{"text":"bug","s":65.841,"e":65.921},{"text":"reports","s":66.001,"e":66.401},{"text":"and","s":66.481,"e":66.561},{"text":"telemetry,","s":66.601,"e":67.361},{"text":"and","s":67.441,"e":67.521},{"text":"suggesting","s":67.601,"e":68.161},{"text":"what","s":68.241,"e":68.321},{"text":"to","s":68.401,"e":68.481},{"text":"fix.","s":68.681,"e":69.441},{"text":"And","s":69.521,"e":69.601},{"text":"Daisy","s":69.708,"e":69.921},{"text":"Hollman","s":70.001,"e":70.321},{"text":"expects","s":70.561,"e":70.801},{"text":"the","s":70.881,"e":70.961},{"text":"next","s":71.081,"e":71.201},{"text":"bottleneck","s":71.281,"e":71.761},{"text":"to","s":71.801,"e":71.841},{"text":"be","s":71.921,"e":72.001},{"text":"getting","s":72.121,"e":72.241},{"text":"information","s":72.321,"e":72.961},{"text":"from","s":73.041,"e":73.121},{"text":"the","s":73.201,"e":73.281},{"text":"model","s":73.481,"e":73.681},{"text":"to","s":73.801,"e":73.921},{"text":"you,","s":74.041,"e":74.561},{"text":"because","s":74.641,"e":74.881},{"text":"your","s":74.921,"e":74.961},{"text":"attention","s":75.321,"e":75.681},{"text":"is","s":75.761,"e":75.841},{"text":"the","s":75.881,"e":75.921},{"text":"scarce","s":76.001,"e":76.321},{"text":"part.","s":76.401,"e":76.961}]},{"template":"quote","chapter":"The real question","narration":"Addy Osmani describes the deeper shift. Every time software got cheaper to build, demand grew. Agents won't remove engineering work. 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Scribes stopped being scribes, but an enormous new world of writers and authors appeared. Martin Fowler, who has seen more shifts than most, doesn't think AI will wipe out software development. 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Three habits from the people building this. Simon Willison: whenever a model fails at something, tuck it away and try again in six months. Sometimes it suddenly works. Boris Cherny: build for the model six months from now, not today's. 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Agentic engineering keeps the quality bar while agents do the typing. Context is everything. Explore, plan, implement, verify. Close the loop, so agents check their own work. Encode what you learn into memory files, skills, hooks and checks. Scale with isolation and care. Guard against the lethal trifecta. 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